The Cuban journalist and former political prisoner Alejandro González Raga warns that what the Trump Administration presents as a potential diplomatic agreement with the Cuban regime is, in reality, not a negotiation: it is a covert imposition disguised as diplomacy, because Havana has never had and will never have the political will to negotiate anything.
González Raga, executive director of the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights (OCDH), made this analysis in an interview with Tania Costa, days after Trump declared at the White House that he would make a deal with the Cuban regime and dismissed military intervention. This statement came four days after the U.S. president described Cuba as an "absolutely failed state" before the UN General Assembly and claimed that Marco Rubio was handling the discussions with Havana.
"Political will has never existed in the Cuban government and it will not exist. What happens is that they find themselves at a crossroads where they have no option but to face the demands being made by the United States government," González Raga pointed out.
For the former political prisoner, the key lies in that distinction: the regime does not negotiate because it wants to, but because it has no alternative. "I don't think it's a diplomatic agreement. Rather, it's a disguised imposition, cloaked in diplomatic oil or something like that, but it will be an imposition. What is presented in public is another matter, but it is an imposition," he stated.
The contradiction of Cuba's own Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla reinforces this view. Although he characterized Trump's statements as "falsehoods and slanders" and insisted that "there have been no negotiations, nor are there any agreements or roadmaps," he simultaneously admitted that there are indeed "conversations with the State Department."
González Raga translates that dynamic in direct terms. "Clearly, it will be: either they accept this or we will take over. We have already heard everything Donald Trump has said about occupying Cuba or seizing Cuba, in that peculiar way he has of expressing things."
The director of the OCDH also dismantles the argument that the regime lacks resources to improve the country's situation. Citing data he attributes to the State Department, he points out that the Cuban government has around 18 billion dollars. “The issues with electricity, hospitals, and food could be resolved for a good while. So there is no will to address what is fundamental. How can we think there is a willingness for political change in Cuba?” he asked.
González Raga acknowledges that Trump does not prioritize Cuba immediately; he is conditioned by multiple fronts, from the war in Iran to the crucial midterm elections in November, which he believes are decisive for the Republican Party to maintain its capacity for action. "We are at the mercy of Trump’s will and the decisions made by the United States government," he admitted, though he is confident that a solution will come "in due time."
The political prisoner, who was sentenced to 14 years in prison during the Black Spring of 2003 and spent five years in Cuban prisons before exiling to Spain, also does not rule out a transition similar to that of Venezuela. González Raga sees the recent U.S. donation of 100 million dollars in aid to Cuba as a sign that Washington is moving in that direction.
However, he issued a warning about the historical dependency that the regime itself has fostered: "67 years of a paternal state have made us a dependent people, and now we expect someone to bring us freedom without realizing that freedom depends on each one of us."
"Freedom has its price, and one must choose to pay it or live without it," concluded González Raga, paraphrasing Martí and Maceo.
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