An analysis published by the Miami Herald indicates that the recent leaks regarding U.S. military planning related to Cuba are part of a deliberate pressure strategy, rather than an imminent operation.
This is asserted by Brian Fonseca, Vice President of Research in Defense and National Security at Florida International University (FIU), in statements collected by journalist Nora Gámez Torres in a report published on Monday.
The immediate trigger was a report from CBS News published on Friday, which revealed an internal message from the U.S. Army Reserve assessing whether it could provide South Command with military police units, medical staff, engineers, and logistical support within 90 to 120 days.
The document does not mention Cuba by name, but multiple U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed to CBS that the request is part of ongoing military planning related to the island.
Fonseca is categorical about the profile of those units: «What seems to be the case is that the planning revolves around military assets that would support some type of humanitarian response or intervention».
Indeed, the mentioned formations —military police, doctors, engineers, logistics— functionally correspond to stabilization missions, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction, rather than offensive combat units.
But the expert goes beyond operational analysis. For Fonseca, the leaks serve a dual political purpose: "They also aim to send a message to the domestic electoral base that has expectations for change just before the midterm elections."
This reading aligns with the strategy that Fonseca himself attributes to Secretary of State Marco Rubio: «Rubio seeks a negotiated strategy. He is also not looking for a swift and disruptive change. He mentioned during the summer that do not expect change to happen now; it will occur towards the end of the administration».
"He's trying to manage expectations. I think that's part of the domestic issue at play: setting expectations among the Republican base in South Florida ahead of the elections," the specialist added.
The president Donald Trump downplayed the possibility of military action on Saturday, stating to reporters: “I would say that Cuba and we will make a deal. I don't think we need the military.” He added that “Cuba is failing very badly” and that Washington wants to “open up Cuba” to Cuban Americans who wish to return.
The response from the Cuban regime came the following day. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, described any use of military force as "an egregious international crime" before C-SPAN and acknowledged, in an unusually frank admission, that Cuba could face an attack alone, referring to the tepid response from its traditional allies, Russia and China, to U.S. pressure.
The leaks from September add to a previous report from July in which CBS reported that Pentagon planners had explored options that included an aerial assault led by the 101st Airborne Division, with no final decision made.
In May, as revealed by Axios, South Command had already conducted a multi-agency tabletop exercise with action plans regarding Cuba, clarifying at that time that there was no planned or imminent invasion.
During the week of the UN General Assembly, Trump described Cuba as an "absolutely failed state" and predicted that the country would "fall," while Rubio offered the regime a "golden opportunity" to move towards political and economic freedom, with the promise that Washington could work with Cuban actors whose hands were not "stained with blood."
Fonseca had warned in April that a military intervention in Cuba would be relatively straightforward from an operational standpoint, given the deterioration of Cuba's military equipment, but that the real challenge would come afterward, in the political transition post-intervention.
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