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A tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic could develop into a tropical depression in the coming days, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) based in Miami.
The NHC indicated this Sunday on X that the system has a 20% chance of development in 48 hours and a 70% chance in the next seven days, as it moves west-northwest at a speed of between 16 and 24 kilometers per hour over open waters of the Atlantic.
Although the presence of dry air currently limits its development, the organization anticipates that conditions will become more favorable by the middle or end of this week.
The Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez commented on Facebook that the phenomenon "does not pose any danger to land at this time" and specified that it is moving over open waters.
He added that another tropical wave could also encounter favorable conditions for its development, although it has not yet been officially marked by the NHC.
Ruisánchez warned, however, that the unusually calm behavior of September in the current hurricane season is concerning.
"To date, we have only recorded six tropical storms and one hurricane," he recalled.
If a pattern consistent with historical averages is maintained, up to eight additional systems could form in October and November, months when activity increases in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
"In Cuba, October is the month with the highest incidence, so there are enough reasons to stay informed and alert during the second half of the season," the specialist emphasized.
The current hurricane season in the Atlantic, which began on June 1 and will run until November 30, has experienced lower activity than expected, although experts insist that some peaks could occur in October.
Frequently Asked Questions about the tropical wave in the Atlantic and its potential development
What are the chances that the tropical wave in the Atlantic will develop into a depression?
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the tropical wave has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next seven days. This indicates that the system is under active surveillance and has a high potential to develop over the course of the week.
What is the current path of the tropical wave, and does it pose an immediate threat?
The tropical wave is moving west-northwest at a speed of between 16 and 24 kilometers per hour over the open waters of the Atlantic. Currently, it does not pose an immediate threat to land, but it is recommended to stay alert for updates as trajectories can change.
Why is it important to stay alert during the hurricane season in September?
September is historically a critical month for the impact of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in Cuba, where nine hurricanes have made landfall since 1950. It is crucial to stay informed and prepared, as this month coincides with the peak of the hurricane season, increasing hurricane activity and risk in the region.
What factors are influencing the development of the tropical wave?
Dry and stable air is currently limiting the development of the system, but conditions are expected to become more favorable by mid to late week. Factors such as warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear could aid in its evolution into a tropical depression.
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