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The shipments of crude oil and diesel from Pemex to Cuba, which between January 2023 and September 2025 would amount to more than $1.4 billion according to reports from the oil company to the SEC of the United States, are surrounded by a key question: can it be proven that this fuel helps alleviate the blackouts affecting Cuban families?
An analysis from Animal Político warns that, despite the official narrative of "humanitarian aid," there are no public mechanisms to independently verify the destination and final use of those shipments for the direct benefit of the population.
The lack of clarity comes as the island faces a severe energy crisis with daily power outages averaging up to 18 hours and waiting times of up to three months to obtain gasoline by appointment, which raises doubts about whether the assistance translates into real and sustained relief for households.
According to reports from México Evalúa, cited by Animal Político, the shipments were channeled through Gasolinas Bienestar, S.A. de C.V., a subsidiary of Pemex established under private law, with the purpose of supplying fuel to vulnerable communities in Mexico and abroad.
The text emphasizes that Pemex has maintained that, due to its legal nature, the subsidiary is not a “mandatory subject” in terms of transparency, which has been used to deny the provision of detailed information about the transactions.
The document adds that, although the Presidency of Mexico publicly acknowledges that "this information needs to be provided," it simultaneously confirms the continuation of shipments to Cuba and justifies them as "humanitarian aid," leaving—according to the analysis—an open tension: recognized public interest, but a legal framework that limits access to data on operations funded with public resources.
Humanitarian aid or “black box”?
Mexico Evalúa suggests that the discussion is not moral ("whether to help or not"), but rather about accountability: it argues that humanitarian aid requires public contracts, independent audits, final use certification, and clauses to prevent triangulation.
Without that, he warns, what presents itself as assistance may end up as unverified subsidies to structures that do not demonstrate that the benefit reaches the population.
The analysis also recalls the precedent of PDVSA, where oil donations "aimed at social purposes" ended up being funneled to third countries, according to documentation cited in the text itself. It argues that, without traceability and external controls, the risk of diversions is not an abstract hypothesis, but a vulnerability associated with opacity.
The document also highlights the profile of Gasolinas Bienestar: using the information available in the Public Account, it describes a highly leveraged subsidiary with almost negligible margins and a lack of disaggregated financial statements that would clarify whether the reported figures correspond to actual collections or to accounts receivable with high uncertainty.
From that perspective, he argues that the subsidiary does not generate economic value for Pemex and warns of the risks of asset damage if sales are recorded that are, in practice, not collected.
In parallel, Mexico Evalúa points to geopolitical pressures and costs: it mentions inquiries from U.S. congress members, the precedent of the Exim Bank regarding a loan requested by Pemex, and the potential for the case to become a point of friction in the negotiations leading up to 2026, where transparency and energy sector standards influence trust among partners.
What is known and what remains unverified
What is documented in the analysis is that there are reports of shipments of crude oil and diesel valued at over 1.4 billion dollars and a corporate framework (Gasolinas Bienestar) that has been used to restrict access to detailed information.
What is unclear —and here lies the crux of the doubt— is that there are no independent public mechanisms to verify that these shipments are effectively intended to improve electricity generation and, therefore, directly benefit the Cuban families enduring endless blackouts.
In a scenario where the Cuban population endures prolonged power outages and fuel shortages, the question remains: without transparency in agreements and without verifiable tracking, how can we know if Mexico's oil aid is truly reaching the Cuban people —or if it is lost in an opaque system that does not provide accountability?
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