J. Michael Waller, intelligence analyst and president of Georgetown Research, a private intelligence firm in Washington, D.C., stated on Wednesday that the Communist Party of Cuba is doomed and has little time left to live. His statements were disseminated by journalist Steve Lance on the NTD platform.
"The Cuban Communist Party is doomed. It has a short lifetime left on it. And Trump and Secretary Marco Rubio are committed to seeing this through," stated Waller, who is described as a former CIA operative and is a senior analyst at the Center for Security Policy.
Waller proposed three possible scenarios for the end of the regime: an internal revolution —which he deemed nearly impossible given the party's security apparatus—, a negotiated agreement between the Trump administration and the Cuban leadership, or some formula not yet considered. He acknowledged that there is no certain way to predict how that collapse would occur.
The analyst went further by proposing a high-impact strategy for Washington: "I believe that if we can take control of the regime, make it work for us, and then dismantle it piece by piece, it would be a fantastic step forward. Just think about it—if we took control of the Cuban intelligence files and discovered who all the Cuban spies in America are, who all the Cuban terrorist agents in America are."
The strategic value of these files is significant. Cuba operated extensive espionage networks for decades on U.S. soil, the most well-known of which is the Wasp Network, dismantled by the FBI in 1998, which managed to infiltrate military bases such as MacDill and the Southern Command in Florida.
About those who do not cooperate with Washington, Waller was emphatic: "Anyone who doesn't cooperate 100% with us should not be free to roam the earth without fear."
The analyst's statements come three days after President Donald Trump claimed in a press conference in Doral, Florida, that Cuba is facing serious humanitarian issues, lacking energy and funds, and that the country is on the brink of collapse. Trump characterized the situation as a potential “friendly takeover” and appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the negotiator.
On March 6, Trump stated on CNN: "I want to put Marco there and see how it works. We are very focused on this right now." Rubio was appointed negotiator with Cuba in that same interview.
According to reports from USA Today, the agreement under discussion would include a negotiated exit for Miguel Díaz-Canel, the permanent presence of the Castro family on the island, and agreements in the sectors of ports, energy, and tourism. Recent analyses suggest a strategy that some refer to as “Cubastroika” to force economic changes on the island.
The economic context of the regime worsens its negotiating position. The Cuban GDP declined by more than 4% in 2025, sugar production fell to 150,000 tons—a historic low—blackouts are chronic, and mass emigration is depleting the country of human capital. Trump declared a national emergency citing Cuba as a threat to the United States at the end of January.
On his part, Raúl Castro ordered the postponement of the 9th PCC Congress for political survival, scheduled for April 2026, to prioritize what the party itself termed its existential crisis. Trump summarized his administration's stance with a direct warning to the regime: “They will make a deal, or we will do it anyway.”
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