The UK Ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004, Paul Webster Hare, dismissed the possibility of a U.S. military intervention on the island in an interview with CiberCuba and analyzed the current state of negotiations between Washington and Havana. He did this through a diplomatic reading based on what has emerged from the discussions between the Trump Administration and the Cuban regime.
The diplomat emphasized that the best part of the Cuban opposition has emigrated—more than two million people have left since the pandemic—and that any intervention would only lead to a new humanitarian crisis. "It doesn't benefit the United States, and it doesn't benefit Cuba," he stated. He also trusts that the U.S. Secretary of State agrees with this assessment: "Marco Rubio aims to bring the Cuban family together, to unite the Cuban spirit," he said.
Hare, who is currently a professor at the Pardee School of Boston University, was straightforward: "In Cuba, there is no organized and substantial opposition, like there is with María Corina Machado and Edmundo González in Venezuela. Without that factor, a military action lacks a political foundation," he noted.
Regarding the negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Cuban regime, Hare mentioned that they have taken place in Mexico, a country with historical ties to both parties.
Axios revealed on February 18 that Rubio's contacts were with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," the grandson of Raúl Castro and head of the General Directorate of Personal Security of MININT. The Spanish newspaper ABC, for its part, reported conversations with Alejandro Castro Espín in Mexico. Both pieces of information suggest that real power remains in the hands of the Castro family, not Díaz-Canel.
Hare considered that the role of Díaz-Canel in any transition is marginal: "Miguel Díaz-Canel evidently has a role with the Communist Party to always show strong resistance." Along these lines, he added that, according to the Cuban Constitution, he must leave the government in two years.
About Raúl Castro, it was noted that he has always been more pragmatic: "He perhaps preferred a model with a prosperous private sector, while maintaining the one-party system, like China. It was Raúl who signed the agreement with Obama in 2014, which was criticized by Fidel just days before his death", it was recalled.
The diplomat proposed a model for economic reconstruction that will require a Marshall Plan: investment in agriculture, tourism, communications, and nickel. "Create a Switzerland in the Caribbean, a Singapore in the Caribbean, exploit its natural resources, its tourism, its nickel, its proximity to the largest market in the world," he suggested.
He also mentioned Rosa María Payá, 37 years old and daughter of Oswaldo Payá, as a possible representative of Cuban-Americans in a future administration, following the constitutional and peaceful path of her father.
Hare also warned that President Trump's statements about "taking" Cuba are detrimental to the negotiations. "In my opinion, President Trump's statements do not help these negotiations," he noted.
Regarding the Helms-Burton Act, it was pointed out that it expressly prohibits economic assistance to the Castro family, which limits the role of figures such as Óscar Pérez Oliva Fraga, great-nephew of Fidel Castro and Vice Prime Minister.
"The conditions are critical, catastrophic. This applies not only to oil, energy, and food, but also to the shortage of medicines," summarized Hare.
The diplomat was emphatic when assessing the interruption of Obama’s thaw: "They have lost 10 years, in my opinion," he said, referring to the time elapsed since the historic visit of the former Democratic president to Havana in March 2016.
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