How to unlock the domino

The desperation in Cuba for a drop of oil led many —even within the Government itself— to fantasize that the Russian ship Sea Horse, with 200,000 barrels of diesel in its massive tanks, would defy the U.S. naval blockade and that Putin would risk it all for his old comrades in the Caribbean.

Somewhere in the Atlantic, another Russian supertanker is currently sailing towards a destination that could be Cuba. The truth is that no one knows what course it will take. Today, the least of the Kremlin's concerns is that remote and problematic territory that the Soviets idealized as "The Island of Freedom." They are focused on Ukraine, the Iranian conflict, and a significant waiver obtained from the White House to sell crude oil in a frenzied global market. Cuba does not factor into that equation.

La Habana, for its part, seems to have forgotten fundamental historical lessons. In October 1962, the freighters and submarines of the USSR never crossed the quarantine imposed by Kennedy's destroyers 500 miles off the coast of Cuba; they turned back in the Atlantic en route to Mother Russia. This Friday, March 20, it was revealed that the Sea Horse carrying emergency fuel for Cuban thermoelectric plants had also changed course. Putin did the same as Khrushchev, whom the Cubans called upon in the sixties: “Nikita, sissy, what is given cannot be taken away.”

Outside of the equation is Russian diesel, the zero hour is approaching rapidly, while Cuba and the United States seem farther apart than ever. If they share anything, it is FRUSTRATION, in capital letters.

Just a few weeks ago, the atmosphere seemed favorable for some kind of initial agreement. Miguel Díaz-Canel finally acknowledged the negotiations between Raúl Castro's circle and the White House —clarifying that he was also involved— while Marco Rubio hinted at the possibility of a gradual change in Cuba.

In parallel, Havana gave the green light to small and medium-sized enterprises for the importation of gasoline from Florida and Texas through suppliers licensed by the Treasury Department: an unthinkable scenario just a month ago that, although with limited economic impact, breaks the state monopoly on fuel control.

But during crises, negotiation margins can vary drastically. Within hours, the situation changed. The Secretary of State deemed a set of measures announced by the Cuban government to inject capital from the exile community into its struggling economy as insufficient. Havana responded by reaffirming the immovability of its leadership—from Castro to Díaz-Canel—and dismissed a request from the United States Embassy to import diesel for its power plants as "shameless," while maintaining a total oil blockade on the island. The words "war" and "resistance" jumped from social media to traditional press and then to official discourse.

For the time being, with a kinetic action or a leadership extraction operation in the style of Maduro ruled out—according to Southern Command—the White House does not appear to have a winning hand. Using energy suffocation as a pressure tactic can only lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, the consequences of which would ultimately be blamed on the United States, beyond the responsibility of the Cuban regime for the current crisis.

For Havana, the scenarios are equally ominous: social explosion, street violence, humanitarian crisis, system collapse, death.

Yesterday, I asked a European businessman who had just returned from Cuba how much time was left before hospitals and water pumping stations reached a critical state due to a lack of fuel. "Nothing, there’s no time left," he told me. "The oil has run out."

Meanwhile, the nightly protests are multiplying across the country. Hungry people wander through deserted avenues, caught between desperation and hopelessness. Thousands are awaiting surgeries, and doctors lack transportation to reach the hospitals. I've heard chilling stories of people who "steal water" from others.

The dominoes are locked: in good Cuban fashion, a situation with no way out, the end of the game.

But even in dominoes, there is room for maneuvering. When an experienced player can lock the game, but doing so involves the risk of losing, they often choose to keep the game open in search of better options.

Russia and Venezuela out of the picture, only two contenders remain: the Trump Administration and the Cuban government.

The former could break the mold and bet big. Unlike Barack Obama, Donald Trump still possesses political capital to effectively propose a dismantling of the sanctions that would lead to lifting the embargo. Crucially, he could gain bipartisan support in Congress, including the reluctant acceptance of the three Miami congressmen, and emerge as the statesman who resolved the last chapter of the Cold War.

The Castro-Canel duo, in return, could implement decisive and irreversible measures: the release of all political prisoners, deep market reforms, genuine openness to civil society, and a transparent path toward democratization, accompanied throughout the process by sectors of the Cuban-American community. Saving the homeland for present and future generations.

An agreement of that magnitude would immediately translate into relief for a civilian population exhausted after decades of repressive and incompetent government. For that reason alone, it is worth attempting.

Ultimately, if Havana were to violate a broad and good faith agreement, Washington would hold the card that blocks the game, this time with the certainty of winning the match.

“It's never darkest before dawn,” goes an ancient adage that people often rely on when hope begins to fade. For the sake of everyone, hopefully, both Cubans on either side of the Florida Straits understand this, as they are the only ones who truly know and can unlock the dominoes.