A Russian energy expert highlighted one of the main obstacles preventing Moscow from coming to Cuba's aid again amid the deep crisis of the National Electric System (SEN): the lack of funds to pay for the necessary investments.
Cuba is an insolvent actor. Let them first find a way to pay us. Then we can talk about the matter, stated Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University affiliated with the Russian government, in remarks to Finanzas Mail reported this Friday by Gazeta.Ru.
Yushkov stated that Russia has the technical capacity to help modernize Cuba's energy infrastructure, but he cautioned that any cooperation of that magnitude would need to be commercially viable for Moscow.
«The Cuban energy system is in very poor condition, which is why electricity outages occur regularly on the island. At the same time, consumption continues to rise, while large-scale modernization is not taking place and practically no new generation capacity is being added,» he explained.
The diagnosis aligns with a reality that Cubans endure daily: an aging electrical system, with frequent breakdowns in thermoelectric plants, insufficient generation capacity, and a critical dependence on imported fuel.
According to Yushkov, the technical possibilities for cooperation are vast.
Russian companies could build power plants in Cuba, organize supplies of gas or coal, and even explore a nuclear plant project. However, it is first necessary to determine how the republic would compensate for the costs, he noted.
The warning becomes particularly significant because the Cuban regime has been trying for months to attract Russian capital specifically to the energy sector.
In June, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga offered Russian companies business opportunities in electricity generation and distribution, energy efficiency, renewable sources, and refineries.
Havana began to offer incentives to attract Russian capital to the fuel sector, including the possibility of direct sales in both wholesale and retail markets.
In that meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Chernishenko conveyed a significantly more optimistic message and assured that companies from his country were willing to invest in long-term Cuban projects "despite external pressure."
Yushkov's statements now raise a fundamental question regarding those promises of cooperation: who will ultimately pay for the investments?
Moscow has served as one of the main energy lifelines for Havana in recent months, but Russian shipments have also not managed to resolve the structural deficit.
The 100,000 tons of crude oil donated by Russia and received at the end of March provided temporary relief to the electrical system. Once that oil was consumed, blackouts surged again.
The situation later became more complicated with the Russian tanker Universal, which spent weeks sailing without completing the anticipated journey to Cuba. This incident coincided with one of the most critical moments of fuel scarcity on the island.
This adds an additional difficulty for Moscow. On August 3rd, CiberCuba reported that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries were reducing Russia's ability to maintain fuel shipments to Cuba.
One day prior, Russia had announced its decision to extend until 2027 the existing restrictions on the export of diesel and gasoline, specifically due to the fuel crisis it is experiencing as a result of Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Yushkov also mentioned the dialogue between Cuban authorities and the United States as a risk.
According to the expert, a shift in the political orientation of Havana could result in Russia not recovering the money invested in large energy projects.
The political dimension is not new either. Moscow has acknowledged that the Cuban situation is part of its discussions with Washington, while publicly maintaining its alliance with Havana.
The specialist added that Russia also has its own energy problems and pointed out the existence of electricity deficits in certain regions of the country, including the south and the Far East.
For this reason, he believed that as long as Cuba does not present a convincing payment mechanism, it would be more rational for Moscow to allocate those resources to modernizing its own infrastructure.
The statements contrast with the repeated political promises of cooperation between Havana and Moscow and highlight a problem that goes beyond Russia's technical ability to assist Cuba: the island's economic decline and its limited capacity to finance the multi-million dollar investments required for its electrical system.
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