The Cuban political scientist and historian Armando Chaguaceda published this Saturday on Facebook a structured reflection in six points in which he employs a biological metaphor to diagnose the Cuban crisis: the nation as a patient, Castroism as a disease, and the international community as a medical body that has failed.
"The Cuban nation is a living body, yet exhausted, struggling for survival. Many of its internal organs coexisted quite passively with the affliction that plagues it; however, they have begun to react defensively to it. Other external organs managed to partially escape the suffering; but over time, they forgot how to harness their strength to fight it," wrote the political scientist.
With that image, he distinguishes between the society that resists within the island and the diaspora, which he highlights for having lost the habit of organized action.
On the origin of evil, the analysis is straightforward: "Castroism is that deadly chronic disease that—promising to be a physical benefit in its inception—has been parasitizing the Cuban nation for seven decades; with a rhythm and effects so profound that they now endanger the very existence of that nation and, paradoxically, its own."
Regarding the United States, Chaguaceda presents an ambivalent reading: "The United States is a medical team with contradictory manners and objectives, but the only one that has shown a closeness, means, and interests to somehow address the convalescence. Recently, part of the team has correctly increased the dosage of the treatment; offering palliatives in parallel... but has yet to decide to proceed with surgery."
And adds a warning about another faction of that same team: "Another part of the team, in an unacknowledged manner, seems to want to keep the parasite alive to use it for the benefit of their investigations and businesses."
The most severe criticism is directed at the international community: "The majority of doctors in the medical community—around the world—have ignored the patient's cries; to the point that some of them even admire the disease. And they blame the patient for its spread. They are, therefore, clear co-responsible for the suffering."
Reflection comes at a moment of unprecedented intensity in Cuban social protests: the Cuban Conflict Observatory recorded 107 street protests just in June 2026, nearly double the previous record. Cubalex documented 319 repressive events in that same month, and its director, Laritza Diversent, was clear: "The militarization is not aimed at an external enemy but at the Cuban population itself." The regime continues to imprison hundreds of political prisoners according to reports from independent organizations.
The energy collapse worsens the situation: the country reached another maximum in its energy crisis by recording an impact of 2,411 megawatts (MW) on August 4th, leaving more than 70% of the population without electricity simultaneously. The informal dollar was trading at 670 Cuban pesos in July, compared to 435 in December 2025, and CEPAL projects a GDP contraction of between 6.5% and 15% for 2026, the worst in Latin America.
This publication aligns with the analysis that Chaguaceda has maintained throughout the year. In July, he stated that “in Cuba, protests happen every day and every night like never before in the last fifty years”, and in June, he warned that the regime is experiencing “the moment of greatest weakness in its entire history,” although he emphasized that “the Cuban system cannot be unlocked without effective action from real force.”
"The situation is critical for everyone: patient, parasite, physicians. And the responses must address—analytically, politically, and ethically—this harsh reality," concludes Chaguaceda in his publication.
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