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On Saturday it was reported that the petrochemical vessel Mia Grace, which departed on January 19 from Lomé, Togo, with a shipment intended for Havana, changed its manifest and is now heading to the port of Río Haina, near Santo Domingo, where it is expected to arrive on February 2.
The satellite tracking platforms show that the vessel, sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, altered its destination during the Atlantic crossing, raising concerns about whether its fuel cargo - allegedly diesel or fuel oil - will ultimately arrive in Cuba or be diverted to another transit point.
Rio Haina is an important Dominican commercial port specializing in general cargo, liquids, and chemical products, located very close to the Dominican Petroleum Refinery (REFIDOMSA), which is responsible for the refining and importation of petroleum derivatives.
The Mia Grace, an oil and chemical tanker, has a total length of 183 meters and a beam of 32 meters, with a deadweight tonnage of 50 tons.
Why did it change course?
Reports and experts point to several possible reasons, although there is not yet an official confirmed version. Cibercuba examines two likely reasons.
The Mia Grace originally departed from the port of Antwerp, Belgium, where GAESA has made occasional purchases in previous years, and from there it went to Togo to pick up its cargo.
The change in their route coincides with a worsening of the energy crisis in Cuba, which has further deteriorated the already precarious daily lives of thousands of families and has forced segments of the population to protest with pots and pans due to power outages.
Awaiting definitions on whether the ship will ultimately deliver its cargo in the Dominican Republic or change plans once again, the population watches with concern as logistical complications translate into greater uncertainty for a country that urgently needs fuel.
Spot buying and complex logistics
Specialists suggest that the fuel may have been purchased by the state-owned company Cubametales (part of the GAESA conglomerate) through a European intermediary, complicating logistics and potentially disrupting the delivery schedule.
According to information revealed to Diario de Cuba by Jorge Piñón, a non-resident researcher at the University of Texas Energy Institute, the ship could be transporting a cash purchase made by the company Cubametales, owned by the GAESA Business Group, with a European trader acting as an intermediary.
"The quality of the cargo is not clear, but we speculate that it is diesel or fuel oil. Togo has no oil refining capacity, but it exports refined oil and has a significant maritime transit and logistics infrastructure," he specified.
The expert believes that the ship could be transporting around 314,500 barrels of diesel or 280,500 barrels of fuel oil. "It seems that it is not fully loaded, based on its draft," he said.
The Mia Grace originally set sail from the port of Antwerp, Belgium, where GAESA has made timely purchases in previous years, and from there it went to Togo to pick up its cargo.
The drive of the political context
Geopolitical reasons and international pressure related to U.S. sanctions and fears of possible reprisals for transporting fuel to Cuba may have influenced the decision to change destination.
The truth is that the news of the change in direction coincided almost exactly with the report suggesting that the administration of President Donald Trump is considering new measures to pressure a regime change in Cuba, including the possibility of imposing a complete blockade on oil imports to the island, according to three individuals familiar with the internal discussions who spoke to Politico .
The proposal —which has not yet been approved— would be an escalation compared to previous announcements by Trump about stopping the oil that reaches Cuba from Venezuela and is part of a package of actions that could be presented to the president.
According to sources cited by Politico, the idea has been promoted by critics of the Cuban government within the administration itself and is reportedly supported by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two of the three people consulted, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
Politician points out that no decision has been made regarding the implementation of the blockade.
One of the individuals described the energy as "strangulation" to "finish off" the regime, asserting that, in the view of those advocating for escalation, the overthrow of the communist government would be an "event" that would occur in 2026.
The report indicates that there are discussions within the U.S. government about whether it is necessary to go "that far."
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