Economist: "Attention must be paid to the issues of dialogue" between Cuba and the U.S.

The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal stated that, in the event of a dialogue between Cuba and the United States, it is essential to not only analyze who would participate in the conversations but also what the central topics would be, especially in the economic sphere.

In a post on their Facebook page, "The State as such," Monreal indicated that economic matters could represent the area of least risk for both parties within a broader negotiation.

According to the economist, the concept of “opening”, promoted so far by the United States, could be compatible with the sovereignty approach upheld by the Cuban government if it is structured around measures already included in the official plans of the island.

Among the components he described as "sovereign," he mentioned a potential macroeconomic stabilization program that includes reducing the fiscal deficit, implementing a restrictive monetary policy, controlling inflation, reorganizing the foreign exchange market, and increasing domestic supply.

Monreal warned that short-term macroeconomic stabilization —within a one to two-year horizon— would involve necessary but "painful" adjustments, while the structural reforms, which could extend over a decade, would be the ones enabling sustained long-term growth.

The economist emphasized that stabilization should be accompanied by additional financial resources to cover the initial foreign exchange gap and mitigate the negative social impact.

These resources could come from bridge loans or from internal self-financing mechanisms.

In the absence of direct credits from the United States, Monreal suggested the possibility that Washington could facilitate internal financing measures by relaxing regulations on remittances, increasing American visitors, or boosting humanitarian aid.

He also listed potential structural reforms that could be considered sovereign decisions of the Cuban state, such as redefining the role and size of state enterprises, expanding foreign investment, market and pricing reforms, diversifying external income, institutional changes, and a more targeted social protection system.

For Monreal, the coexistence of a "coordinated" sovereignty with a "peaceful" conditionality could facilitate a favorable start for dialogue in terms of image for both parties, although he acknowledged that the process could become complicated or even aborted later on.

The economist concluded that it is premature to define the concrete course of any potential dialogue and its outcomes, but he believed that, at least in an initial phase, economic openness could prevail as a central point of understanding, a point that would likely generate conflicting positions both within and outside of Cuba.