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Until the time of this publication, just one hour after their release, two polls from CiberCuba regarding the televised appearance of Miguel Díaz-Canel show a marked skepticism among Cubans. In total, 699 people participated in the voting conducted on WhatsApp and Facebook, and the majority believe that the leader will not announce anything new.
In the survey conducted on the WhatsApp channel, 261 users participated: 195 voted for “Nothing new” (75%), 53 for “More continuity” (20%), and 13 for “Real changes” (5%). On Facebook, with 438 votes, the results were very similar: 78% chose “Nothing new,” while 18% opted for “More continuity” and 4% for “Real changes.” Combined, both surveys totaled 537 votes —equivalent to approximately 77% of the total— indicating that Díaz-Canel is unlikely to announce anything new, while 132 people (19%) anticipate more continuity and around 30 (4%) expect real changes.
The question posed was direct: "What do you think Díaz-Canel will announce today?" with three response options. The results reflect overwhelming skepticism among Cubans who follow CiberCuba, whose Facebook page has over 6 million followers, with approximately 50% residing on the Island. CiberCuba's WhatsApp channel, with more than 351,000 followers and a reach of 450,000 accounts —95% from Cuba— also captured the same widespread perception.
The comments on the post reinforced the numbers. "Nothing new jjj," wrote Dallami Mayo. Yarumy Duran Bordeloy was more blunt: "Option zero." Héctor VF offered a political reading: "What Cubans really want and desire will not be announced by the regime; it will be announced by the U.S. when the time comes, so this is just another deterrent strategy to keep people entertained."
The appearance this Friday was announced on Thursday as a continuation of the exchange from February 5, when Díaz-Canel acknowledged a "severe fuel shortage," appealed to "creative resistance," and compared the situation to the Special Period of the 1990s. That speech was described on social media as "pure talk" and "the same old story," with the most repeated reaction being: "Those who have power will see it," referring to the constant blackouts.
Since then, the situation has not improved. On March 7, the Communist Party of Cuba acknowledged that the country is going through "very difficult times" and reiterated the call for "creative resistance," a phrase that has become a subject of public mockery under the slogan "Creative resistance does not provide food." On the same day and the following one, prolonged blackouts triggered protests and pot-banging demonstrations in Marianao, Regla, Boyeros, El Cotorro, and Matanzas.
The electricity deficit exceeds 2,000 MW according to the Electric Union, the GDP has been contracting for five years with an estimated decline of 5% in 2025, and the Cuban peso is trading at 560 pesos per euro in the informal market, against an average salary of 6,830 pesos, equivalent to about 12 euros. Tourism plummeted from 4.7 million visitors in 2018 to 1.8 million in 2025. This is compounded by the cutoff of Venezuelan oil supply following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, and the executive order signed by Trump on January 29 declaring Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat" and imposing tariffs on countries that sell crude oil to it.
The skepticism surrounding the polls aligns with the sentiment recorded even by international betting platforms: Polymarket assigns a 28% probability to the regime's fall before December 31, 2026, while Kalshi places the probability of Díaz-Canel stepping down before 2027 at 48%, with a total of $2.7 million wagered. A Cuban deputy, Carlos Miguel Pérez Reyes, summarized this sentiment on March 3 with a phrase that resonates now more than ever: "Necessary discourse, but implementation is needed."
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