The departure of the Russian tanker Anatoli Kolodkin from Cuba, after completing the unloading of about 100,000 tons of crude oil in the bay of Matanzas, marks the beginning of a new phase: that of measuring how long this supply can truly last amid the energy crisis the island is facing and how it will be distributed.
According to an analysis shared on social media by the official journalist José Miguel Solís, the shipment—estimated at 100,000 tons of Urals crude—amounts to approximately 730,000 barrels, after applying the usual conversion factor for this type of oil.
The vessel discharged the crude oil in about 96 hours at the bay of Matanzas, from where its distribution by coastal shipping to various refineries in the country began.
According to the estimates shared in that analysis, processing crude oil would yield approximately 292,000 barrels of fuel oil, 255,000 of diesel, and 109,000 of gasoline, in addition to a fraction of liquefied gas.
However, the scale of the shipment contrasts with the country's energy demand. Under current conditions, Cuba needs tens of thousands of barrels daily just to partially sustain electricity generation.
According to official data from CUPET, the supply could cover between seven and ten days of consumption, depending on the level of restriction applied to the system.
The state-owned company has indicated that the fuel will be primarily allocated for electricity generation—both in thermoelectric plants and in generator sets—and for essential services, which limits its direct impact on the population.
This means that the shipment will not lead to a normalization of supply, but rather to a temporary reduction in blackouts and the support of strategic sectors for a few days.
In practice, this is a temporary relief, not a structural solution. As analysts and recent coverage have already pointed out, the shipment barely covers a fraction of the country's energy demand.
The decision to allow this shipment has been justified by Washington in humanitarian terms, amidst a crisis that directly affects the population. However, this exceptional nature does not change the core of the problem.
The key factor is the duration: less than two weeks even in the best-case scenario. From there, the Cuban energy system will once again rely on new supplies in a context marked by uncertainty.
The oil from Anatoli Kolodkin provides a brief respite, but it confirms that the crisis remains unresolved and without a short-term solution.
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