The Cuban government has reportedly strengthened security measures around Raúl Castro and Miguel Díaz-Canel in recent months due to the possibility of a U.S. operation to capture or kill them, as revealed by The New York Times citing U.S. officials.
The information appears in a report about the scenarios being studied by the Donald Trump administration to enforce changes in the Cuban leadership, following the military operation that concluded in January with the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
"In the months since the incursion against Maduro, Cuba has taken defensive measures to make it harder for U.S. forces to carry out an operation to capture or kill Castro or the current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel,” the newspaper reports, attributing the information to U.S. officials.
The Times does not specify what those measures are nor does it confirm that Trump has ordered preparations for such an operation.
But the revelation takes on another dimension when combined with the significant increase in U.S. intelligence activities around Cuba.
Washington recently raised Cuba to the status of "Priority 1" within its National Intelligence Priorities Framework (NIPF), placing it on the same level as China, Russia, and Iran.
According to another investigation by the New York Times, agencies such as the NSA and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency have started to direct more satellites and other collection resources toward Cuba.
The information obtained will serve, among other objectives, for the U.S. Armed Forces to update their options for a potential military action against the island, after military and intelligence officials expressed complaints about having outdated information regarding Cuba's intentions, capabilities, and defenses.
The activity is also visible in the air.
Since February, U.S. reconnaissance aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon, the RC-135V Rivet Joint, and the high-altitude drone MQ-4C Triton have accumulated over 150 hours of missions around Cuba, according to data published by Politico.
CiberCuba has documented several of those flights and surveillance operations around the island in recent months.
These aircraft have different capabilities to gather electronic, maritime, and geospatial intelligence. The increase in their missions aligns with the effort described by the Times to obtain a much more accurate picture of the territory, communications, military capabilities, and Cuban defenses.
The regime's concern would have an immediate precedent: Venezuela.
The United States used a judicial accusation against Maduro as part of the legal basis for the Special Forces operation that ended with his capture.
Now, according to the Times, the Department of Justice has also filed charges against Raúl Castro. But there is a fundamental difference.
Maduro was serving as the president of Venezuela, and his departure allowed Delcy Rodríguez, then vice president, to temporarily assume power. Raúl Castro, at 95 years old, does not hold any formal state position, although he maintains significant influence over the Cuban system.
Therefore, capturing it would not automatically lead to an institutional change.
The newspaper also does not state that there is currently an order from Trump to carry out an operation against Raúl Castro or Díaz-Canel. In fact, the new CIA special group for Cuba is not currently authorized to carry out lethal operations.
However, Times itself introduces a relevant caveat: the authorities under which a unit of this type operates are flexible and can be modified at any time by the president.
The revelations outline a scenario that goes beyond economic pressure.
The CIA has established a group specifically dedicated to Cuba; Washington has made the island a top intelligence priority; satellites and reconnaissance aircraft are gathering more information; and the Pentagon is using that intelligence to update potential military scenarios.
At the same time, according to the Times, Havana would be taking measures to protect its top figures in light of the possibility that the United States might attempt to carry out a similar operation to the one executed in Venezuela.
That does not mean that an incursion is decided or that it will take place.
But it reveals that both Washington and Havana seem to be considering scenarios that just a few months ago would have seemed extraordinary: the United States updating its military options and the Cuban regime preparing to prevent its top leaders from becoming the next target.
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