Tens of billions of dollars potentially available for the reconstruction of Cuba and a roadmap outlining the conditions for investing them: in recent months, a segment of the Cuban-American business community has begun to provide figures and concrete proposals to a question that has been subordinate to a more urgent one for decades: what would post-Castro Cuba look like economically.
Jorge Mas Santos has become one of the most prominent voices in that conversation. His forecasts of tens of billions of dollars for reconstruction align with a proposal that focuses on private ownership, legal security, international investment, and, significantly, the creation of a new class of Cuban entrepreneurs and property owners.
President of the Cuban American National Foundation (FNCA), top executive of MasTec, and co-owner of Inter Miami, Mas Santos has been combining his political contacts in Washington with an increasingly specific discourse on the economic reconstruction of the island over the past few months.
The issue that is beginning to emerge goes beyond how much money could flow into Cuba after a political change: what conditions that capital would demand, what economic model it would help to build, and what participation Cubans living on the island would have in it.
The 35 billion and what the figure really means
At the end of May, CiberCuba reported that Cuban exiles are said to have committed $35 billion to invest during the first year following a democratic transition, according to consultant Roberto Fernández-Rizo.
Fernández-Rizo attributed that figure to statements made by Mas Santos and noted that the willingness to invest would be contingent upon guarantees that currently do not exist in Cuba: legal security, a transition to democracy, elections, and protection of investors' rights.
"We met to discuss it, but legal security, changes, a transition to democracy, announced elections," stated Fernández-Rizo while describing the conditions put forward by those businesspeople.
The figure must be distinguished from two other estimates made directly by Mas.
In March, the businessman anticipated a potential inflow of between 35 billion and 45 billion dollars in capital, along with the construction of between two and 2.5 million homes during the first three or four years and a scenario of full employment.
In May, while speaking with El País about how much the reconstruction of the country could cost, he greatly expanded the outlook.
«If 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 billion are needed, whatever the amount, it won't be a problem», he stated.
Therefore, it is not a matter of three equivalent estimates. One corresponds to investments that, according to Fernández-Rizo, entrepreneurs in exile would be willing to make; another pertains to Mas's forecast regarding the initial influx of capital; and the third relates to the amount that may ultimately be required for reconstruction.
The three, however, point to a single issue: the possibility of mobilizing large amounts of private capital towards Cuba if a political and legal transformation occurs in the country.
Money demands different rules
The element that repeats in both the statements and the roadmap is that this capital would not come to operate under the current economic rules of the Cuban regime.
Legal security occupies a central place.
Protected private property, enforceable contracts, independent courts, freedom to invest and move capital, a functional financial system, and predictable tax regulations are part of the environment that the document deems necessary to attract investment.
The difference is important.
For years, Havana has sought to attract foreign investment and more recently has opened avenues for Cubans residing abroad to invest directly on the island. The vision articulated by Mas and the FNCA, however, links a massive influx of capital to a political and institutional transformation.
It would not simply be a matter of investing more in the existing Cuba, but rather of first creating the conditions that make it possible to invest in another Cuba.
From attracting capital to creating Cuban owners
It is precisely here that the roadmap introduces one of its most significant elements.
If exiled entrepreneurs and large international funds contribute a significant portion of the necessary money for reconstruction, there is an inevitable question: what economic role will the millions of Cubans currently living on the island occupy?
The document aims to address that challenge with a clear commitment to create a new Cuban business class.
Among its proposals is the granting of incentives to companies that have at least 10% Cuban ownership, provided that this participation is effective and includes shares, voting rights, and protection mechanisms for minority partners.
The distinction is essential: creating jobs through incoming investments is one thing, but having Cubans also participate in the ownership of companies and in the wealth generated by the reconstruction is another.
The roadmap aims for citizens to become economically independent from the State, not only by becoming employees in the private sector but also by becoming entrepreneurs, shareholders, and investors.
The enormous difference in capital between inside and outside of Cuba
The challenge is significant.
After more than six decades of restrictions on property and private wealth accumulation, Cubans residing on the island would be starting from a very different financial position compared to large entrepreneurs in exile or international funds.
This asymmetry could become one of the central issues of an accelerated economic opening.
Foreign capital would have the immediate ability to acquire assets, develop large projects, and finance infrastructure, while a significant portion of the Cuban population would struggle even to gather the initial capital needed to start a small business.
The incentive for Cuban ownership outlined in the roadmap seeks to partially address this imbalance.
But a potential transition would raise much larger questions: how to transform state-owned enterprises, what would happen to assets currently controlled by the state, how to resolve claims regarding confiscated properties, and through what mechanisms could citizens access the credit and capital necessary to truly become owners.
The roadmap sets the objective. The execution of a process of that magnitude would require much more detailed mechanisms.
The capital accumulated by the exile
The potential to mobilize tens of billions is backed by a historical transformation within the Cuban community in the United States.
Several generations of exiles and emigrants have built businesses, legacies, and professional networks for more than six decades outside the island.
But it represents one of the most visible examples of that capital accumulation.
MasTec, the company he leads, is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and develops large infrastructure projects. Additionally, he is involved with Inter Miami and leads the Cuban American National Foundation, founded by his father, Jorge Mas Canosa.
Mas's proposition is that the capital accumulated by Cubans outside the country, combined with large international funds, could become one of the driving forces of reconstruction.
The issue would not be solely financial. Professionals, entrepreneurs, and specialists from the diaspora would also contribute knowledge, international networks, and business experience.
From the White House to planning for the day after
The economic debate has progressed alongside Mas's political contacts in Washington.
In March, during the reception for Inter Miami at the White House, President Donald Trump spoke directly with Jorge and José Mas about Cuba and suggested that the time would come when they could return to the island.
Days later, Jorge Mas explained that during the meeting with Trump and the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, there was a direct discussion about Cuba.
"I found in the President of the United States a man with a total conviction to help the Cuban people achieve their freedom."
His message was then: «The day of freedom for our homeland is approaching».
But alongside those political expectations, another increasingly concrete conversation began to emerge: what to do economically if that change arrives.
He has used the expression "Cuban miracle" to describe the process he envisions: large investments, massive reconstruction of housing, job creation, and leveraging the human capital of Cubans both inside and outside the country.
The roadmap translates part of that vision from the realm of statements into specific proposals regarding taxes, businesses, banking, investment, and property.
Exiles are beginning to think about reconstruction as well
For decades, a significant part of the political activity of the Cuban exile community has necessarily focused on how to achieve a democratic transformation on the island.
The conversation reflected in these initiatives introduces another dimension: what to do next.
Electricity, housing, roads, banks, businesses, taxes, international investment, and property are beginning to emerge alongside elections, freedoms, and the rule of law in the debate about a future transition.
This does not mean that there is a singular exile project nor that Mas's proposals represent the entirety of the Cuban-American community.
There is also no certainty that the mentioned investment volumes will materialize in the expected amounts.
But the alignment between significant potential capital figures and a roadmap that sets the conditions under which investment should occur reveals a significant phenomenon: a portion of the economic power built by Cubans outside the island is beginning to influence the economic future of Cuba.
The 35 billion is, from that perspective, just the beginning of the discussion.
The underlying question is what role Cuban-American capital would play in a reconstruction of that magnitude and, above all, how to ensure that the inhabitants of a Cuba that abandons the communist system are not merely spectators or pawns in the new economy.
The response provided by the roadmap involves attempting to turn them into owners as well.
After more than six decades of a centralized economy dominated by a communist state, the distribution of that new property could become one of the major economic debates in post-revolutionary Cuba.
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