The noon news broadcast from Cuban Television updated the trajectory and other details of the powerful hurricane Melissa, which was moving towards Jamaica at noon this Monday with maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometers per hour and higher gusts, while its central pressure continues to drop.
From the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology, meteorologist Aylin Justiz explained that Melissa is moving very slowly south of Jamaica, heading west at only six kilometers per hour, and warned that “conditions are already forming for the turn it should take today and tomorrow Tuesday”.
He pointed out that the hurricane, which reached category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale early Monday morning, has extensive outer areas of showers, rain, and thunderstorms, some of which are currently crossing over Cuban territory, particularly near the central region, while stronger ones are still concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, south of Hispaniola, also affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
The expert provided details on the latest developments and behavior of the meteor, which is expected to reach the southern part of eastern Cuba on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, according to predictions.
He explained that the eye of the hurricane has a diameter of about 20 km/h. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 kilometers, and tropical storm-force winds extend approximately 315 kilometers.
In that area —as shown in the satellite images—, heavy rains and storms are observed where wind gusts can be reaching and exceeding 300 km/h.
He added that it is expected that, throughout the rest of today, Melissa will maintain a similar course and speed of translation, and then make a further turn towards the north.
That curvature, he pointed out, is closely related to the position, movement, and intensity of other large-scale weather systems that influence the area: the high-pressure systems and troughs. At this moment, there is a high-pressure system to the west of the system and another to the right, and it has begun to enter the circulation of a trough that separates those two high-pressure systems.
He stated that under those circumstances, Melissa will "curve back north and then northeast, moving across eastern Cuba."
Although he warned that it is still "quite complex to define which part of the eastern region the hurricane might be entering on Tuesday and into Wednesday, because this is a process that is still developing and has all of Monday to continue the interaction of the western part of the anticyclonic ridge with the trough, which will be influencing Melissa's future movement."
Nevertheless, he said, all forecast models are increasingly reaching a consensus and agree that the hurricane will cross through the eastern region of Cuban territory. This is also reflected in the track cone that, as of noon this Monday, located Hurricane Melissa approximately 220 kilometers southwest of Kingston, the capital of Jamaica, 380 kilometers from Cabo Cruz, at the western tip of Granma, and 480 kilometers from the city of Santiago de Cuba.
The meteorologist predicted that this afternoon and evening, Melissa "will continue to approach the southern coast of Jamaica, it should be moving over that part of the Caribbean island, and by Tuesday morning it will be practically crossing over the Caribbean territory," while "tomorrow around eight in the evening, it will be located at a point between Jamaica and the seas south of eastern Cuba, and from there the system's proximity will be even more pronounced over the eastern region."
As the hurricane advances, the meteorological conditions in the eastern provinces will progressively deteriorate; initially, the rainfall will be affected, he stated. Some external bands are already crossing over the areas near Ciego de Ávila and Camagüey, but as the system continues to move, since "it should turn north and then northeast, settling into that anticyclonic environment and trough, all the area of clouds will also be moving with the system, and strong rains will then begin to impact eastern Cuba in some localities, especially in mountainous regions.
In parallel, the maritime effect will begin, one of the three meteorological phenomena—along with strong winds and heavy rains—associated with intense hurricanes, such as the case of Melissa; and it was warned that strong swells will start today on the southern coast of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo, and light coastal flooding will begin in low-lying areas of that coastline.
Melissa continues its approach towards eastern Cuba as a powerful Category 5 system, with sustained winds of 280 kilometers per hour and higher gusts, which places it among the most intense cyclones that have threatened Cuba in over a hundred years. The hurricane could match or even surpass the strongest in national history, such as those in 1924 and 1932, both Category 5, and considered the most devastating in the country’s meteorological records.
The meteorologist José Rubiera warned this Monday that Melissa is already a "gigantic" and "monstrous" hurricane. “It is extremely dangerous,” he emphasized, predicting that the system could reach the eastern part of Cuba as a powerful cyclone—possibly a category 4 or 3—between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
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