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The debate about the political future of Cuba has entered a new phase. Amid signs of international pressure and diplomatic gestures from the regime, three major viewpoints are beginning to emerge among Cubans, both on the island and abroad, regarding what kind of change could occur in the country in the near future.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, recently stated that Cuba "wants to negotiate" and suggested that an agreement could be reached with relative ease.
At the same time, Cuba's ambassador in Washington, Lianys Torres Rivera, asserted that Havana remains willing to engage in dialogue with the U.S. government on key issues concerning the bilateral relationship.
Three stances on the possible change
In this context, the public debate among Cubans —both on and off the island— is organized around three main positions.
1. Those who demand real change, not cosmetic change
For many Cubans, the primary fear is that a potential international negotiation will result in a superficial change in the leadership without altering the structure of the system.
The central question of the debate is whether a genuine transition to democracy is being prepared or simply a political and economic agreement with the power that currently controls the country.
According to various analysts, a genuine transition should include at least some basic elements:
- The release of all political prisoners
- The effective recognition of freedom of expression
- A redefinition of the role of the Armed Forces
- An audit of the GAESA military-business conglomerate
2. Those who wish for any change, as soon as possible
For a large portion of the population living on the island, political debate is secondary to the urgency of everyday life.
Those who visit Cuba describe an environment marked by poverty, litter everywhere, stress, and urban decay. When asked if they perceive a desire for change among the population, the response is often emphatic: “Yes, they want change.”
In many cases, the aspiration can be summed up in a simple idea: freedom and the possibility of living normally.
This segment of the population does not discuss transition models or institutional formulas. Their stance is essentially pragmatic: any solution that alleviates the current crisis would be welcomed.
3. The regime's elites, preparing to survive
A third stance corresponds to the sectors linked to the political and economic power of the system.
These elites are already adapting to a possible scenario of change. They maintain privileged access to goods and services and have begun to explore new avenues for economic reconversion, including indirect control of private companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Decree-Law 144, approved at the end of 2025 and announced in March 2026, which allows partnerships between state-owned enterprises and private actors, has been interpreted by some economists as a signal to the outside world rather than as a structural reform of the system.
The great debate: transition or "Cubastroika"
Political power in Cuba remains concentrated in the Communist Party, the state security apparatus, and the military business conglomerate GAESA.
Some analysts warn that focusing any negotiations solely on the departure of Miguel Díaz-Canel could result in a mere change of leadership without profound changes in the system.
They also point out that, although the Castro family no longer holds visible positions, their networks of influence still carry weight within the political and military apparatus.
In this context, a term that is increasingly mentioned in the debate emerges: "Cubastroika," a possible strategy for limited economic reforms without any real political opening.
Three possible scenarios
In light of the current crisis, most analysts consulted by CiberCuba identify three main scenarios for the country's immediate future:
- Negotiated Transition: release of political prisoners, legalization of the opposition, gradual economic opening, and a supervised electoral calendar.
- Disordered collapse: implosion of the system without prior agreement, with the risk of a power vacuum and influence from external actors.
- External imposition: a scenario provoked by a migration crisis or an internal explosion that necessitates international intervention, specifically from the United States.
Factors that accelerate change
Several structural factors are putting pressure on the Cuban political system:
- The country's GDP has fallen by about 11% since 2019.
- More than 2.7 million Cubans have left the island since 2020.
- The fall of Nicolás Maduro's regime in Venezuela cut off the subsidized oil supply that once covered up to 90% of Cuba's energy consumption.
A change that many already consider inevitable
For many analysts, the debate is no longer about whether Cuba will change or not, but rather about how that change will occur and who will control it.
Among the Cubans most attentive to the process, there is also a concern: that an international negotiation may end up preserving the economic and military structures of the regime, resulting in a mere façade change without real democratization.
At the same time, others warn that the longer an orderly transition takes, the greater the likelihood that the change will ultimately be imposed by external factors.
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