Marco Rubio spoke again about Cuba, but this time the central message was not directed at the formal government of Miguel Díaz-Canel nor did it emphasize the failure of Castroism; instead, it targeted another audience: the military, the security agencies, and the internal sectors that uphold the real power of the regime.
«We hope that those who today, in some way, control the weapons and the repressive regime, have people among them who open their eyes to the reality they face», said the United States Secretary of State during an interview with Sean Hannity from Fox News.
The statement is significant. Rubio did not speak only about reforms, dialogue, or a potential economic opening. He talked about those who "control the weapons" and "the repressive regime," a reference that places the spotlight on military leaders, State Security, the Ministry of the Interior, the Armed Forces, and the economic structures tied to the power apparatus.
In other words: Washington seems to be sending a signal to the Cuban uniformed forces to assess whether to continue protecting an increasingly isolated, impoverished, and pressured elite, or to facilitate a transition that paves the way for profound political and economic changes.
A message to those who hold real power
Rubio's statement aligns with a narrative the Trump administration has been developing for months: the Cuban problem would not be resolved with economic tweaks or a succession controlled by the Communist Party, but with a real transition that includes political freedoms, economic openness, and a new relationship with the United States.
In September, Rubio had already opened the door to working with certain figures from the Cuban regime, as long as they were willing to commit to a genuine transition and not just cosmetic adjustments.
This distinction marked an important point: Washington does not see the entire Cuban state apparatus as a homogeneous block, but rather distinguishes between those who have direct responsibility for repression—"blood on their hands"—and those who could facilitate an exit.
Months earlier, the Chargé d'Affaires of the United States in Havana, Mike Hammer, confirmed that Washington was maintaining “communications with certain individuals” within the Cuban regime to explore a “peaceful” and “less chaotic” exit.
Those statements already suggested that the White House is not only exerting pressure from the outside, but is also looking within the system for interlocutors capable of shifting the dynamics.
Rubio's statement to Hannity seems to go a step further. It does not limit itself to talking about technocrats, officials, or potential interlocutors. It addresses those who wield control over force.
Uniformed Under Pressure
The call comes in a particularly delicate context for the Cuban military.
In recent months, CiberCuba has documented a noticeable increase in U.S. military pressure in the Caribbean, with exercises, naval presence, intelligence operations, and leaks about possible contingency scenarios surrounding Cuba.
In April, the United States activated exercise FLEX2026 in Key West, while drone flights, intelligence aircraft, and naval presence near the island increased. According to published information, these maneuvers were rehearsing a complete chain of detection, tracking, and interception of targets in the Caribbean.
Training of Marines has also been reported in the Caribbean, maritime interdiction exercises, and movements related to Operation Southern Launch, presented as a military campaign by U.S. Southern Command against drug trafficking and transnational illicit networks, but interpreted by analysts as part of a broader strategic pressure on Cuba.
At this pressure, reports emerged regarding military planning exercises in case Cuba falls into chaos, revealed by Axios and reported by CiberCuba, along with information from CBS News about contingency preparations regarding a possible military action.
None of those reports prove that Washington has made a decision to intervene, but they do show that the military factor is part of the pressure environment currently surrounding the regime.
In that context, Rubio's statement takes on another dimension.
It's not just a moral appeal for some within the regime to "open their eyes." It's a political message delivered at a time when Cuban officials are facing sanctions, isolation, economic pressure, military movements in the Caribbean, and a discourse that is increasingly explicit from Washington.
The strategy: pressure, offer, and transition
The Trump administration has combined warnings with conditional offers. Rubio revealed in July that the United States offered economic aid, assistance for reconstruction, and a new bilateral relationship if the regime agrees to implement real political and economic reforms.
He has also insisted that Washington will use “all the tools” available to promote changes in Cuba, demand the release of political prisoners, and pressure the elites that obstruct any meaningful reform.
This is the context in which the message should be understood for those who control the weapons.
Rubio is not asking the military to save the regime with a superficial reform. He is telling them, in diplomatic but unequivocal terms, that the current model has no way out and that those who support it must decide which side they will be on when the outcome accelerates.
The U.S. pressure does not seem aimed solely at punishing the leadership, but rather at triggering internal calculations.
Who within the apparatus is willing to bear the full cost of repression, national misery, and international isolation? Who understands that an orderly transition could be less costly than a chaotic break? Who is willing to stop acting as a buffer for a discredited elite?
A social majority demanding change
The call from Rubio coincides with a political fact that the regime is trying to ignore: a significant portion of Cuban society wants a profound change in the system.
The independent survey "Cuba: political and social perspectives," driven by over 20 independent digital media outlets, revealed an overwhelming rejection of the current model.
According to results collected by CiberCuba, 75.1% of participants supported a transition to a liberal democracy with a market economy, while over 91% backed some form of deep structural change in the country.
Other results from the same survey pointed in the same direction: 94% of respondents expressed being very dissatisfied with the current system, and 95% believed that a political change was extremely urgent.
Although it is an independent digital survey rather than a state poll, its political value lies in the fact that it challenges the official narrative of unanimity. It also helps to understand why Rubio's message to the military carries particular weight: if the social majority wants change, the military faces the dilemma of continuing to repress a country that demands a way out or facilitating a transition that avoids further suffering.
The dilemma of the military
For decades, the Armed Forces and security agencies have been portrayed by the regime as guarantors of national sovereignty. However, in practice, they have ended up being guarantors of the continuity of a political and economic elite that has failed to provide food, electricity, transportation, decent wages, or a future for millions of Cubans.
That's why Rubio's statement is so relevant.
When talking about those who control "the weapons and the repressive regime," the Secretary of State is not addressing an abstraction. He is speaking to specific individuals within a concrete structure: commanders who understand the true state of the country, officers who know the extent of the deterioration, operatives who realize that blind obedience to the leadership can also become a historical responsibility.
The message from Washington seems clear: there may still be a diplomatic and orderly resolution, but such a resolution requires that within the apparatus itself, someone understands that the time for waiting is running out.
Rubio summarized it in the interview by noting that some Cuban leaders believe they can withstand without making changes until the Trump administration is over. “They are mistaken and will learn the lesson the hard way if they do not make corrections,” he said.
The statement was not just a warning to the regime. It was also an invitation for the uniformed officers to see reality without slogans: a country in ruins, a population demanding change, a leadership with no answers, and a U.S. administration that no longer seems willing to accept that Havana continues to buy time.
In that scenario, Rubio did not speak only about Cuba. He addressed those who hold the weapons. And he publicly urged them to open their eyes.
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